Why the Georgia Senate Race may Split

Perdue is the incumbent senator, and Loeffler was appointed by the Governor a year ago.  Both candidates have been accused of using insider information to make stock trades which is also a conflict of interest.  But the Justice Department has not found any wrong doing and voters do not seem to be deterred.

In November, the Reverend Raphael Warnock pulled in more votes than Senator Loeffler in the special election, but the Republican votes were split between Loeffler and Congressman Collins.  If you combine Collins votes, Loeffler would have easily won.

But Warnock has great support from church leaders, the African American voters as well as a string of endorsement from current and former politicians.  Despite been a senator for about a year, Loeffler is behind Warnock in the polls by 2.5 points, while Ossoff is ahead of Perdue by just one.  But we all know that the polling has been off during the Nov 5th elections, so this lead is well within the margin of error.

Ossoff was behind Perdue by 88,000 votes during the general election, and it’s quite possible that a lot of  voters who voted for the Libertarian candidate will put their support behind the Ossoff.

In November, many republicans actually voted for Biden perhaps because they could not stand another four years of Trump.  One may think that voters will vote for both seats in the same party and not split the votes.  Knowing that the balance of power of the senate is on the line, many democratic voters may elect not to vote for both Warnock and Ossoff.   Perhaps many Warnock voters may elect not to vote for Ossoff and vice versa.

Warnock will definitely be able to beat Loeffler.  Biden has proposed raising the capital gains tax rate from 20% to 39.6% for those making over $1 million (£769,230), which would represent a big blow to the asset management industry. Other tax hikes he has put forward include increasing the statutory corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.